BERN NOTICE: Winning the Obama-Trump Swing Counties

New data show the Bernie 2020 campaign is particularly strong in counties that swung the last election — and that could play a pivotal role in 2020

Bern Notice is a production of the Bernie 2020 campaign. Please forward this on to your friends and tell them to subscribe. The views expressed here are solely of the bylined author.

There are many ways to judge a candidate’s “electability” — we can look at two new polls that show Bernie gaining ground on Joe Biden and maintaining strong numbers against Donald Trump. We can look at the latest poll showing Bernie with the highest favorability ratings of any Democratic candidate. We can look at polls showing Bernie finding particularly strong support among people of color.

Or we can go deeper and look at granular data that reflects voter enthusiasm for candidates in the areas that swung the last presidential election — and that could once again play a pivotal role in 2020. And as a new Daily Beast report shows, Bernie is absolutely crushing it in those particular locales.

The report looks at grassroots fundraising, which illustrates the energy and strength of a candidate’s base. The Daily Beast specifically hones in on so-called “pivot counties” — the 206 counties that were twice won by President Obama and then were won by Donald Trump in 2016.

Now here’s the news: in those key counties, Bernie has a whopping 33,000+ contributors — more than the other two top-polling Democrats combined.

It is worth reiterating how pivotal these counties are: key battleground states such as Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Iowa are among the 13 states where pivot counties comprise more than 5 percent of the population. In all, more than 1 in 3 total Democratic donors in these counties are Bernie donors, and Bernie has the most Democratic donations in 87 percent of all pivot counties. That’s YUGE.

Another measure of “electability” is a candidate’s volunteer base — and the Huffington Post today reports on some encouraging signs for Bernie 2020:

Staff and volunteers for the presidential campaign of Sen. Bernie Sanders(I-Vt.) have organized and hosted over 11,000 events, including more than 2,000 in California, the campaign announced Tuesday evening. The vast majority of the events have been organized by volunteers, according to the campaign.

The achievement, which top Sanders campaign organizers revealed in a conference call with over 7,000 supporters, reflects what the Sanders campaign sees as a secret weapon as it seeks to stand out in a crowded field of candidates: a “distributed” ― or volunteer-run ― organizing system that it innovated in the 2016 race and has since fine-tuned.Bern after reading,

“We are going to win this campaign because we (are) going to have the strongest grassroots movement of any campaign,” Bernie told supporters on the call. “That is how we win this thing. We win this going to our base, our strength of support.”

Bern after reading,

Sirota

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